probability

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probability

Postby Brooding Sliver » Sun Jun 27, 2004 8:33 am

I could personally use a probability indicator one that would show the likely hood of drawing a specific card. Most likely his could logically be placed under statistics.
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Probaility Analysis

Postby gaddlord » Mon Jun 28, 2004 6:06 am

Excellent idea. We will implement it. :wink:
Thanks Brooding Silver.

The formula to find the probability of drawing a hand (H) with a particular card or cards (X) out of a certain deck size (D) when there are (Y) of that card in the deck is:

P(X,(H-X)) = (C(Y,X) x C(D-Y,H-X)) / C(D,H)

So if we have a deck of forty cards with seventeen lands in them and we want to know our chance to draw two lands in our opening draw of seven cards (not less or more - only two), then our formula would look like:

P(2,5) = (C(17,2) x C(23,5)) / C(40,7)

P(2,5) = 24.6% chance of drawing only two land in the opening draw.

Tell me what C(X, Y) stans for. Combination?
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im nt veary good at math

Postby brooding sliver » Mon Jun 28, 2004 4:38 pm

so i couldnt tell u what C(X, Y) stand for. But I will look into it.
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Postby vthornheart » Sun Aug 06, 2006 3:45 pm

Ah, saw this post and I figured I'd lend my hand. I know it's ancient, but...

http://www.gomath.com/algebra/probability.php


The C stands for a "Combination". That's C(n, r) = (n!) / (r! (n - r)!) if it helps.

Permutations is P if you see that in any formulas. Similar but simpler formula than above: P(n, r) = (n!) / ((n - r)!)

Hope that helps!
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Postby gaddlord » Mon Aug 07, 2006 1:04 am

Thank you.

As a matter of fact the formulas used in the Probability Analyusis calculation are known as Hyper Geometric Distribution and Combination.
Excell supports those two formulas - HYPGEOMDIST and COMBIN.

:wink:
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Postby Uncle Spooky » Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:17 pm

I can see how you calculate the probabilities for turn 1, eg the 7 card draw, but could you explain how you are calculating subsequent probabilities? I do not get the same answers when I do my own calculations... I'm guessing I'm wrong, but thought I'd ask anyway.

[edit]Nevermind, I found the error in my calculations!

Many thanks,

Mark
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